रण - निति

दुसरे विश्व युद्ध के अंत के बाद [१९४५] दुनिया भर में पश्चिमी साम्राज्य के वर्चस्व का भी अंत हुआ। इसडी-कोलोनिज़शन की प्रक्रिया ने उत्तर अफ्रीका से लेकर पूर्वी एशिया तक लगभग चालीस नये देश आज़ाद होकरस्थापित हुए।

उत्तर अफ्रीका - मध्य एशिया और दक्षिण एशिया में कई ऐसे नए राष्ट्र स्थापित किए गए जो की पुरी तरह से फर्जीराष्ट्र थे। [अंग्रेज़ी में इन्हें - artificial states - कहते है]। ये देश एक पश्चिमी रण निति के अंतर्गत बनाये गए थे जोआज तक कायम है।

अमेरिका और ग्रेट ब्रिटेन इस नए रण निति के निर्माता और निर्देशक थे। एक नियंत्रण रण निति [containment strategy] सोविएत रशिया के ख़िलाफ़ बनाई गई और एक नियंत्रण रण निति अंतर्राष्ट्रीय इस्स्लामी उम्माह केखिलाफ बनाई गई|

अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मार्क्सवाद और अंतर्राष्ट्रीय उम्माह ही - उस वक्त पश्चिमी सभ्यता के लिए सबसे बड़ा खतरा और चुनौतीथे। अंतर्राष्ट्रीय उम्माह को ख़त्म करने के लिए उत्तर अफ्रीका से लेकर मध्य एशिया तक के छेत्रों में सारे देश इस तरहसे काट के बनाये गए ताकि कोई भी इस्स्लामी छेत्र भविष्य में किसी भी तरह की चुनौती उनके सामने न रख सके।

सोविएत रशिया के नियंत्रण रण निति के अंतर्गत हिन्दुस्थान के मुस्लिम बहुल छेत्रों को काटकर पाकिस्तान बनानेका फैसला लिया गया। [पढिये - The Shadow of the Great Game by Narendra Singh Sarila]

हिंदुस्तान की ब्रिटिश हुकूमत - तक़रीबन १८९० से ही - इस्स्लामियों के ब्लाक्क्मैल की राजनीती [Politics of blackmail] को पुरा समर्थन और बढ़ावा दे रही थी - हिन्दुस्तानी राष्ट्रवादियों को कुचलने की रण निति के तेहत।

हिन्दुस्तानी राजनीति भी १९४७ तक आकर इतनी उग्र और आक्रामक हो गई थी की हिन्दुस्तानी राष्ट्रवादियों नेइस्स्लामियों की ब्लाक्क्मैल की राजनीती को ख़त्म करने की लिए बंटवारा [partition] स्वीकार कर लिया औरपाकिस्तान की स्थापना हुई।

पश्चिमी रण निति बहुत पारदर्शी साबित हुई जब आगे चलकर सोविएत रशिया जैसे एक विराट राष्ट्र को - और उसकेसाथ अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मार्क्सवाद के सारे फर्जी दावे को - अफगानिस्तान के बंजर ज़मीन में ध्वस्त किया गया.... उसेनेस्तनाबूद किया गया।

इस जंग को - द गुड जिहाद - कहा जाता है और इसे पश्चिमी ताकतों ने पाकिस्तान के साथ मिलकर अफगानिस्तानमें लड़ा था।

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१९८९ में - जब सोविएत रशिया को ध्वस्त किया गया - तब हम इतिहास चक्र के दुसरे तरफ़ थे। हम थे उन गिने चुनेराष्ट्रों में जो की सोविएत कैंप में थे - यानी इतिहास के हारे हुए खेमे में। अमरीकी एजेन्सी - सीआईए [CIA] - अमेरिका में सबसे शक्तिशाली संस्थाओं में से एक है। सीआईए और पाकिस्तानी आर्मी के बीच एक बहुत गहरे औरअटूट सम्बन्ध - द गुड जिहाद के दिनों से चला आ रहा है। ये सम्बन्ध आज तक कायम हैं।

जब ये पुराने सीआईए के बाशिंदे - उन हसीं दिनों की याद में डूबते हैं तो एक विशेष रिश्ता और अपनापन उन्हेंपाकिस्तानी प्रतिष्ठान के प्रति होता है। और जब ये हिंदुस्तान के बारे में सोचते हैं तो उन्हें पता होता है की हम सालेसोविएत खेमे में रुस्सी के तलवे चाट रहे थे। इनकी याददाश्त बहुत तेज़ होती है।

अफगानिस्तान में तालिबान के खात्मे [जिसका जन्म पाकिस्तान ने हीं दिया है] का जंग [जो पुरी तरह से एक फर्जीजंग है - A fake war] और उभरते रशिया [Rising Russia] के बनते हुए कहानी के मद्देनज़र पश्चिमी सभ्यता कोपाकिस्तान की जरूरत आज तक ख़त्म नही हुई है। आज तक इस इस्स्लामी छेत्र का इस्तेमाल पश्चिमी ताकतें करसकती हैं अपने नए रण निति के अनुसार।

The Documentation Project

A Facebook Group page on the documentation project

Thanks.

विजय या वीरगति - I

On Military Interdiction

No Hunker Down – No Step Back – And No Surrender

Introduction

These are the four major Objectives of War against the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Complete Defeat of the Enemy State.

Complete Decimation of its War fighting abilities that includes its Army, Naval and Air Force power.

De - Nuking of the Enemy State.

Dismembering the Enemy State into five or six independent ethnic regions.

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Cold Start – A Reexamination

After the six months long mobilization of the Indian Army on the borders of Rajasthan, Punjab and Kashmir during Operation Parakram in 2001 – 2002, the Indian Strategic thinkers developed the doctrine of Cold Start.

Cold Start envisions the rapid deployment of eight rapidly-deployable Integrated Battle Groups, drawn from the Navy and the Indian Air Force to launch precision strikes into enemy territory. [The Cold Start Doctrine].

These groups would be trained to make swift and hard inroads into the enemy territory. The strikes should be limited and calibrated to ensure nuclear weapons do not come into play in any war scenario. This doctrine is a sophisticated military version of the – Limited War – proposal put forward by the political – bureaucratic establishment in 2002 and which was rejected by the Indian military command.

The Cold Start doctrine essentially contains some fatal flaws that can result in unknown and maybe unprecedented consequences for India. The un-calculated factors include -

The capacities of nuclear armed enemy state for retaliation.

The total and complete initiative of escalation in enemy hands.

The fact of Islam.

We will examine them one by one.

The Capacity

Since the acquisition of nuclear weapons know-how [illegal under international norm and treaties] from China in the periods extending from 1985 – 1987, the Pakistanis have steadily built up their nuclear weapons arsenal and delivery platforms.

According to the information available in the public domain, it has about 100 to 150 nuclear weapons in its arsenal with unknown yields along with some of the most sophisticated delivery platforms in the form of F-16 fighter bombers and a range of ballistic missiles. In short, it has the total capacity to take out at least fifteen Indian cities in a combined and massive first strike assault. This assault, if successful can lead up to the death of 100 to 150 million Indian citizens, which will be unprecedented in human history.

The Initiative of Escalation

The Cold Start doctrine envisions precision strikes over terror training camps in North Kashmir region and the Punjab and neutralizing them. There is a fatal assumption that such limited action is most likely to elicit only a conventional response from the enemy state, along with this there is another set of beliefs that a military confrontation can be conducted under a Nuclear Overhang.

This assumption is fatal because a nuclear armed Islamic state should never be confronted directly on the basis of assumed actions it would take.

The interdiction of an enemy should be decisive and should be conducted on the basis of its capacities and the pain it can inflict on you. And Decisive Interdiction is a readiness to prevent and disable an enemy state before he can inflict the pain upon you.

An Indian attack that disregards these set of factors and goes in for surgical strikes would most likely invite retaliatory strikes by the Islamic republic on India and the nature of the assault is an unknown. The initiative of escalation will then go into the hands of a determined enemy and he will decide what forms it would take. We therefore stand at the risk of losing the power of deniability on the basis of fatal assumptions.

The fact of Islam

The aspect that the enemy state is Islamic should also never be overlooked by us. All the Islamic codes of deception and dissimulation are applied by the Islamists while dealing with Non – Muslims states. [The Practice of Al - Taqiya : Link One - Link Two ].

The Islamic republic of Pakistan stands for the defense of Islam and an attack from a Non – Muslim state can lead to a retaliation that can take unprecedented directions.

In Summation

The enemy state does have the capacity - and once given the initiative - can very easily take out ten to fifteen of your cities and inflict about hundred million deaths. Even though it stands at the risk of total annihilation in retaliation, the victory we gain would come at a very great cost.

First escalation and first assault by the enemy state can lead to a rebuilding process that can extend up to more than fifty to seventy-five years in order to re-attain the pre-war state of existence.

The Challenge

We are essentially confronting a nuclear weapons state that uses its arsenal as a cover for an asymmetrical warfare with terrorism as its main weapon, and which has no proclaimed declaration of No First Use of Nuclear Weapons.

Looking Beyond Cold Start - Two Options

Option One - Reworking the Draft Nuclear Doctrine And Revoking the Decision of No First Use.

In the Cold War age between the US and USSR, a Mutually Assured Destruction [MAD] matrix prevailed between both parties. Both the protagonists had nuclear weapons deployed at each other and kept forever in war ready state. The Americans kept B-52 Stratofortress bombers always on air on a deterrence mission.

In this MAD matrix, the antagonist parties tried to breach each other defenses through a variety of means, one of them being the use of intelligence networks and embedding double agents. The Russians had secret agents in the US providing them with key intelligence on deployments and vital actions and the US also conducted intelligence operations in Soviet Russia.

But neither party tried to use unconventional means like using undercover agents to carry out terror attacks on civilian populations of either country. This was a Sacred Line that was never crossed by both the parties during the entire period of the Cold War from 1945 – 1989.

In the South Asian Region, the MAD matrix extends itself with some variations. We are now dealing with an enemy Islamic state that has rapidly expanded its asymmetrical war strategies beyond the Kashmir Theater of operations after 1993. Now they operate in almost all states in India with indigenous cells carrying out attacks independently, without external support or orders.

This new kind of asymmetrical warfare is made tactically viable by a Nuclear Blackmail which effectively states that - any Indian offensive to liquidate the support and training centers of Jihad Inc. would invite a nuclear retaliation by the Islamic republic. The willingness to use these weapons of mass destruction has been explicitly made clear by many officials within the Islamic republic on many occasions.

The Draft Nuclear Doctrine [DND] was created by consultations of a 27 member National Security Advisory Board and was released by Mr. Brajesh Mishra, India's National Security Adviser on August 17, 1999 in New Delhi. Among many of its assertions, the most vital is the one on a unilateral proclamation of No First Use. As of October 2008, only India and China have publicly declared their commitments towards the policy. [Link]

The DND also had a statement of intent as to what it would do if attacked by an aggressor with nuclear weapons.

The DND objectives states –

2.3. India shall pursue a doctrine of credible minimum nuclear deterrence. In this policy of "retaliation only", the survivability of our arsenal is critical. This is a dynamic concept related to the strategic environment, technological imperatives and the needs of national security. The actual size components, deployment and employment of nuclear forces will be decided in the light of these factors.

India's peacetime posture aims at convincing any potential aggressor that:

(a) Any threat of use of nuclear weapons against India shall invoke measures to counter the threat: and

(b) Any nuclear attack on India and its forces shall result in punitive retaliation with nuclear weapons to inflict damage unacceptable to the aggressor. [Link]

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The DND does not in its document, factor in the new strategies of a rogue Islamic republic that uses asymmetrical warfare strategies to target civilian populations and uses Nuclear Weapons as a tactical strategy to shield and to thwart any offensive action on the Jihad Inc. Complex. Nuclear weapons provide a very vital layer of protection to the entire Jihad Inc. complex.

Factoring in all these aspects and attaining the complete knowledge of the kind of challenge we face, the DND can be reworked to include a new clause to deal with such rogue and diabolical states.

The new clause should assert quite clearly that –

Rogue States using illegal methods of warfare to kill Indian citizens - who are civilians and non-combatants, within or without the territorial limits of India,

- Would be attacked without warning by India, with all weapons at its command, nuclear – biological and chemical - and all the rogue states offensive war fighting abilities would be effectively degraded and destroyed,

- Along with the enemy state itself being completely dismembered as a measure of containment.

This is option one that can be taken along with the requisite follow-up action.

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Option Two

Overwhelming Counter Force

In an Overwhelming Counter Force Attack, there is a recognition that if the enemy state is first to escalate and strike first, then he can inflict unprecedented and unacceptable destruction on you – which can make all retaliatory strikes made by you and the decimation of the enemy state and your own eventual victory redundant.

Counter Force strategies therefore strike the enemy first to comprehensively smash him.

The objective of the Counter Force would be to -

Completely smashing the enemy states military and civilian leadership, so that there are no key decision makers left at any levels.

Completely smashing and taking out all its nuclear installations.

Completely smashing and taking out all its missile installations.

Completely smashing and taking out its Air force and Naval capacities.

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All this has to be achieved within a specific time period of four to eighteen hours of the offensive, before moving in the Land Forces to occupy large parts of the enemy territory in order to dismember it.

In this Counter Force, the enemy state is first hit with conventional arms to degrade its war fighting infrastructure and completely overwhelm him. The great objective of Counter Force is to take out 100% of the enemy states capacity, but even if one manages to take out 95 to 98% of its capacity, we have still managed to impose the impossible choice on him. And that is to - strike back and be completely eliminated or not strike and survive.

Other factors on Counter Force include a Quick Settlement because if the enemy manages to hold us down for more than six to ten days, there might be three kinds of mobilizations.

A mobilization among the Arab States, as the Islamic Republic Pakistan is considered to be the only state with Nuclear Weapons capabilities and the defense of Pakistan, essential to preserve the Islamic bomb.

A likely mobilization of the Chinese troops on the Eastern front, as Pakistan is a very important western pincer of India and keeps it locked down in South Asia, which the Chinese might fear losing.

A most likely mobilization within India by Islamists, who might try to create very wide scale internal destabilization to thwart the efforts of war.

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If we take Option One, we don't have to plan too much.There is only the dirty and messy challenge of international diplomacy but only after the rogue state has been comprehensively rescinded and the 1947 status quo established.

But if we take Option Two, it must be factored in that the adversary must be contained within a specific time period of 24 to 40 hours.

If we presently lack the capacity to implement Counter Force with conviction - we must be willing to absorb more of its strikes until we attain the decisive powers of decimation.

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Citations

The Draft Nuclear Doctrine

SAAG

Bharat Rakshak


[ A Note - The last part of this post would be Re - Edited in the due course of time - Pankaj. Thanks - Nov. 06, 2009]